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America's growth is now mostly immigration

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2026-07-26

For most of its history the United States grew mainly by births. That flipped in the 2020s: with fertility around 1.6 births per woman, natural increase has thinned to a few hundred thousand a year, and net immigration now supplies most of the growth.

The geography moved too. The Sunbelt keeps absorbing people while parts of the Northeast and Midwest flatline; Texas and Florida alone account for a startling share of national gains.

Every debate about immigration is, underneath, a debate about whether the population grows at all.