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Sudanese fertility is falling, just slowly

Sudanese fertility is falling, just slowly

الخصوبة في السودان تتراجع ولكن ببطء

In the mid-1980s a Sudanese woman had, on average, more than six children. Today the figure is around four and a half. That is a real decline, and also one of the gentler slopes in the region; Egypt fell faster, Iran fell off a cliff.

The reliable predictors of fertility decline are girls' schooling, urban living and lower child mortality. Sudan has all three trends, all moving gradually.

Even if fertility fell to two tomorrow, the population would keep growing for decades. So many Sudanese are yet to reach adulthood that momentum alone adds millions.

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