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China's population decline has started, gently for now

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2026-07-26

China's population began shrinking in 2022, the first decline since the famine years. Births have fallen below 10 million a year, roughly half the mid-1980s level, and deaths now exceed them.

Policy reversed hard: the one-child rules gave way to two, then three, plus subsidies and housing perks. The birth rate barely twitched. Once childbearing norms shift, no country has ever pushed them back up much.

The workforce ages first, then shrinks. Automation, later retirement and productivity are the levers left, and Beijing knows it.